Opposition Alliances Are Not Enough To Unseat DPP: Mutharika Will Still Be President After 2019 Polls
Angoni Sam Mpasu, one of my favourate writers of all time, but one of the most biased Speakers only beaten to the record by Davies Katsonga’s reign, is still in charge of New Labour Party, a party, he, Dr. Cassim Chilumpha and Friday Jumbe engineered out of the UDF when “baby” Atupele Muluzi upstaged them after acting for sometime. Mpasu also appeared at the table of opposition alliance.
Of course, businessman and PPM President Mark Katsonga s about to do what he does every four years, dip into his ailing businesses finances and sponsor his self gratification ambition- dreaming in colour as being more popular enough to become a President. PPM ended with the retirement of Aleke Banda. But here we are, after concentrating business, we have President Mark back at the summit of opposition alliance.
Add longtime lawyer, former MP for Karonga South West and who tested Cabinet position- Bazuka Mhango. I thought he had retired after the party- not sure whether it was MGODE or DPP or Republican or Aford had not backed him at polls. Anyway that’s of yesterday, the former legal wizard Bazuka is back, of course as a member of opposition alliance.
I can imagine soon we will see Alliance for Democracy’s Enock Chihana and his potential rival to Aford’s presidency- Frank Mwenefumbo at the table. I can add the usual suspects- Kamuzu Chibambo, John Chisi and someone else we cant pin point now.
I have added a little bit of history on each. I will not say much on Sidik Mia’s interview with Times TV this week, where unnamed people told him Malawians were missing “wise and dynamic” leadership in Malawi politics. I am sure that’s the new code word for his “generous handouts.” That’s a story for another day.
Then we have the Peoples Party- a former ruling party (backdoor entry) for two years, which lost classically and has no leadership. Uladi Mussa is hoping to become a player in 2019 elections. He has always dreamed big since Dr. Bakili Muluzi in 2002 promised him to become a running mate before the Muslim Association of Malawi pressured Muluzi to pick Cassim Chilumpha to partner late Bingu wa Mutharika. Him too, just like Sidik Mia wrongly believe Muslims will follow them. Again, cut my middle finger if Mangochi, Machinga and Balaka would follow Malawi Congress Party.
So Peoples Party would want to bargain a big position in any alliance, so rule them out for now joining “smaller parties” at the summit unless their position is clear. That’s reality of opposition alliance.
But wait a minute- Aford will be rocked in usual leadership wrangles as Frank Mwenefumbo wants the top seat to bargain for his next political move. Khumbo Kachali and his Freedom Party will want to shock and awe the same region, I am sure Loveness Gondwe’s Rainbow Party will be up again and then we have Chris Daza’s DEPECO with its mysterious financiers.
Of course I am aware where Enock Chihana collected his equivalent of 45 million kwacha to boost his ailing Aford. Yes, suddenly he has enough money to put up road show.
The problem with the opposition alliance and the problem with Reverend Lazarus Chakwera will be the opposition alliance. Most of its members have been tried and tested and rejected in their constituencies. They have failed to build party structures.
The Peoples Party has bled a lot, even its core members dumping it. The opportunists who came left much earlier and its former Vice Presidents Brown Mpinganjira, Cassim Chilumpha, Sidik Mia and Khumbo Kachali now wearing various party colours. The ground does not hold for PP. Next election would spell its natural death.
The two Aford MP’s will loose their seats- that I can bet my black foot toe. They have nothing new to offer. The rest of alliance members will not even add votes to Chakwera, actually for those in the south, the mere association of having them will see Chakwera loose in some constituencies where these people were rejecting.
I still don’t believe anyone can read politics in Malawi more than someone I know. The truth is the opposition alliance that is slowly emerging is “nafenso tikadye” and want to ride on social media popularity of Chakwera and his MCP.
Dzuka Malawi, by 2019, we should be voting people with concrete programmes not ultimatums which do not make sense. How can you give 2 years- when you know the DPP has 21 months to finish its term? Two years is 24 months, meaning the opposition alliance has already given up and expect to task DPP somewhere in July, 2019.
Dzuka Malawi, the opposition alliance are briefcase parties and Malawi Congress Party which has failed to win the 66 seats in Central Region. It has not penetrated Ntcheu, the whole Salima south area and parts of Nkhotakota and Kasungu. Even Lilongwe city constituencies, Dowa Central and Ntchisi. This is the biggest challenge for Chakwera- he needs to win all the constituencies in the Centre, get 20 in the North and claim at least 20 in the south for him to win Presidency. There are 93 seats in Southern Region (that includes Eastern region).
DPP to the contrast needs to maintain its current seats and increase seats in central region by 10 and five more in the North, then it is home and dry. These are facts and figures. Until someone shows me constituencies in the North and South and Ntcheu where Chakwera’s new found buddies can emphatically win, I would still consider the opposition alliance as a joke of one man bands on the march. Dzuka Malawi- we might need to stand on our own and form independents alliance!